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Liquor Bets

A prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Built by Jason Littrell. 100% Free. Points only.

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This product uses AI-assisted research to collect, classify, summarize, and score public industry signals. Source links, timestamps, and methodology are provided wherever possible. AI does not create facts, and every published item is grounded in cited source material.

© 2026 Jason Littrellv1
Liquor Bets · est. 2026

What's your prediction?

We bet on the industry's wins, not its losses.

Forecast spirits M&A, James Beard winners, Spirited Awards, legislation, and the stuff the industry actually argues about. 100% Free.

Browse all marketsGot a market in mind? Suggest one.
Open markets
97
Categories
5
Cost to play
$0
M&A
closes in 14d

Will Brown-Forman or Sazerac publicly confirm formal deal talks before July 1, 2026?

1 forecasters·Crowd: 20% YES
50%
1% NO50%99% YES
If YES
0
If NO
0
Lock it in

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Browse by topic

What the room is arguing about

All markets →
Bourbon Glut
American whiskey is sitting on a record stockpile.
Tequila Crisis
Agave prices crashed and category growth flipped negative.
GLP-1 Effect
Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are reshaping alcohol consumption.
THC vs Alcohol
Hemp-derived THC drinks are the fastest-growing beverage segment.
Celebrity Spirits
The celebrity-brand bubble is deflating.
Tariffs & Trade
EU snapback tariffs and global trade fights are existential for American whiskey and tequila.
Tipping Wars
Service charges, no-tipping models, and gratuity reform are the loudest debates in hospitality.
AI in Hospitality
AI agents, voice ordering, and automated reservations are showing up across the industry.
Flash

Closes in hours

Fresh from the wire. Short windows, fast resolution.

All flash markets →
Flashcloses in 43d
Awards

Will any 2026 Spirited Award speech reference Ozempic, GLP-1, or weight-loss medications?

popglp1spirited_awards
NO 65%
How it works

Three steps. No money in. No money out.

01
Pick a market.

Real questions about the spirits and bar industry. Each one has a named source and a resolution date.

02
Drop a probability.

Anywhere from 1% to 99%. Think calibration, not certainty. You can update until the market closes.

03
Get scored.

We resolve from a public source. Brier score = (forecast - outcome)2. Lower is better. Lowest mean Brier wins the month.

This week's wire

Hot markets

All markets →
Legislationcloses in 14d

Will Maryland House Bill 736 (RTD cocktail alcoholic beverage tax) be signed into law before July 1, 2026?

legislationrtdmarylandtax
NO 70%
Crowd
30% YES
Predictors
1
This month

Top 10

Full board →

The board fills out as markets resolve. Minimum five resolved predictions to qualify.

Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 14d

Will any major spirits group announce a $1B+ acquisition before July 1, 2026?

m_and_aspiritsbig_coshort_term
NO 65%
Crowd
35% YES
Predictors
1
Issuescloses in 18d

Will a second major Kentucky distillery announce a 2026 production pause before July 4?

bourbonglutkentuckyproduction
YES 78%
Crowd
78% YES
Predictors
1
M&Acloses in 38d

Will Diageo announce a brand divestiture before its Q4 FY26 earnings call?

diageom_and_aportfolio
YES 75%
Crowd
75% YES
Predictors
1
By topic

What the industry is calling

All topics →
M&A10Data9Bourbon5Non Alc5Legislation5Awards5James Beard5Uncle Nearest5Thc4Celebrity Brand4Rtd450 Best4
BROWN-FORMAN SAZERAC P20% YES14d·MARYLAND HOUSE BILL 7330% YES14d·ANY MAJOR SPIRITS GROU35% YES14d·SECOND MAJOR KENTUCKY78% YES18d·DIAGEO ANNOUNCE BRAND75% YES38d·DIAGEO BROWN-FORMAN PU60% YES41d·WHO WINS BEST NEW YORKOther finalist (65%)42d·NON-US VENUE WIN 202680% YES42d·WHO WINS INTERNATIONALOther nominee (65%)42d·NEW YORK CITY VENUE WI55% YES42d·LEAST ONE MEXICO CITY70% YES42d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS B92% YES42d·WHO WINS BEST US COCKTOther finalist (65%)42d·WHO WINS BEST NEW US COther finalist (65%)42d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS B55% YES42d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS W40% YES42d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS C30% YES43d·ANY 2026 SPIRITED AWAR35% YES43d·ANY US STATE ENACT CAN55% YES45d·DIAGEO NAME PERMANENT65% YES60d·ANY US STATE ENACT NEW20% YES76d·DIAGEO ISSUE DOWNWARD55% YES76d·BROWN-FORMAN PERNOD RI55% YES76d·FEDERAL COURT GRANT GA30% YES77d·BROWN-FORMAN SAZERAC P20% YES14d·MARYLAND HOUSE BILL 7330% YES14d·ANY MAJOR SPIRITS GROU35% YES14d·SECOND MAJOR KENTUCKY78% YES18d·DIAGEO ANNOUNCE BRAND75% YES38d·DIAGEO BROWN-FORMAN PU60% YES41d·WHO WINS BEST NEW YORKOther finalist (65%)42d·NON-US VENUE WIN 202680% YES42d·WHO WINS INTERNATIONALOther nominee (65%)42d·NEW YORK CITY VENUE WI55% YES42d·LEAST ONE MEXICO CITY70% YES42d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS B92% YES42d·WHO WINS BEST US COCKTOther finalist (65%)42d·WHO WINS BEST NEW US COther finalist (65%)42d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS B55% YES42d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS W40% YES42d·2026 SPIRITED AWARDS C30% YES43d·ANY 2026 SPIRITED AWAR35% YES43d·ANY US STATE ENACT CAN55% YES45d·DIAGEO NAME PERMANENT65% YES60d·ANY US STATE ENACT NEW20% YES76d·DIAGEO ISSUE DOWNWARD55% YES76d·BROWN-FORMAN PERNOD RI55% YES76d·FEDERAL COURT GRANT GA30% YES77d·